Support for the Liberals up as election battle looms

5/18/2005 5:02:56 PM

On the eve of what could be a Spring election, a new Environics survey conducted for the CBC finds that Liberal support has increased from a post-election low point found just one month ago, giving them a slim lead of two points over the Conservatives.

Nationally, 33 percent of decided voters would support the Liberal Party if an election were held today; this is an increase of six points from an April survey conducted for the CBC by Environics. The Conservative Party now has the support of 31 percent, down two points. The New Democratic Party garners the support of 22 percent, down two points. Nationally, the Bloc Québécois stands at 10 percent (45% in Quebec, down six points). The Green Party stands at three percent, up one point. One percent would vote for other parties. More than one in ten Canadian voters (14%, unchanged)) remain undecided about which party might deserve their support.

The new survey was conducted between May 12 and 16, 2005 among 1,500 Canadians who are eligible to vote. The margin of error for a sample of this size is +/- 2.6 percentage points 19 times out of 20.

Liberal support, however, remains four points lower than its popular support in the June 2004 election. Support for the Conservative Party is similar to its share of the vote last year, while support for the New Democratic Party is six points higher than its popular vote. Nationally, the Bloc Québécois is down marginally from its popular vote in the June 2004 election.


( ) change from April 2005

In Ontario, the Liberals, with 40 percent of decided voter support, have an eight-point lead over the Conservatives, at 32 percent. The NDP receive support from 24 percent of decided voters.

In Quebec, the Bloc Québécois receives the support of 45 percent of decided voters; a substantial lead of 24 points over the Liberals, at 21 percent. The Conservatives and NDP each receive the support of 16 percent of decided voters.

In British Columbia, the Liberals, with 35 percent of decided voter support, are slightly ahead of both the Conservatives at 30 percent and the New Democrats at 29 percent.

In the Prairies, the Conservatives receive the support of 52 percent of decided voters, a huge lead of 25 points over the Liberals, at 27 percent. The New Democrats receive the support of 19 percent of decided voters.

In Atlantic Canada, the Liberals, at 43 percent of decided voter support, are 13 points ahead of the Conservatives, at 30 percent. The New Democrats receive the support of 25 percent of decided voters.

http://erg.environics.net/news/default.asp?aID=580